Solar Energy UK
21 November 2024
Tripling current solar generation capacity to 60GW by 2030 would significantly lower the cost of electricity, according to an academic analysis. It would also make delivering the Government’s vision of clean power by 2030 more likely.
Doing so while greatly expanding energy storage and flexibility would slash reliance on expensive imports of natural gas, says an analysis conducted by Durham University Energy Institute. It would also make the forthcoming Clean Power Plan less reliant on unproven carbon capture and storage technology, while cutting emissions and using more of our wind generation.
But these substantial benefits would be lost if the Government relies too heavily on out-of-date assumptions presented by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) last week.[1] Doing so would stifle the growth of cheap, clean solar power, says trade association Solar Energy UK.[2]
NESO’s two scenarios both had Great Britain reach 47.4GW of solar capacity by 2030. But in comparison, hitting 60GW – a third on rooftops, the rest on the ground – would result in 12% lower costs, according to the institute’s modelling, which uses a ‘digital twin’ of the UK’s electricity system.
Aiming for 60GW is not simply a more ambitious target. It could act as way to de-risk the Clean Power Plan, guarding against slippage in delivery times from other parts of the plan.
Our projection is founded on more reliable information than used by NESO:
- The two NESO scenarios share a baseline of only 15.1GW of solar capacity being in place last year. Our data shows the true figure for the end of 2024 to be close to 20GW.
- The report failed to consider Government plans to bolster generation on the roofs of homes and businesses, via the Warm Homes Fund, GB Energy, the Local Power Plan, the Future Homes Standard, Future Buildings Standard and retrofitting public buildings. In a Commons debate in July, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband described these measures as, “a rooftop revolution. We must use the rooftops of our country for solar far better than we do at the moment.”[3]
- A regional breakdown of anticipated solar capacity fails to reflect where projects are being developed. This could result in the industry being asked to build solar farms in places that are not commercially viable, cannot be connected readily to the electricity grid, or where appropriate land is unavailable. It could also result in consented projects not being built.
NESO’s advice came amid reforms to how connections to the electricity grid are managed, adding further disquiet.
Allow ‘ready-to-build’ renewables to deliver this decade
“Solar and batteries can be built very quickly, and in the next five years offer the Government a huge opportunity to speed up its mission to deliver clean power. Setting a goal to treble solar to 60GW, rather than a de facto cap implied by the NESO advice, will deliver the lowest cost home grown energy and thousands of secure jobs,” said Solar Energy UK Chief Executive Chris Hewett.
“We entirely agree that the grid connection process must change, as projects can get stuck in a queue for many years. But this needs to be done in a way that will allow ‘ready-to-build’ renewable energy to deliver this decade,” he added.
Our own projections are based on engagement with our more than 400 members, alongside industry data. They are based on there being 11.5GW of operational solar farms, alongside 8.5GW of capacity on residential, commercial and industrial rooftops in place now. Meanwhile, 3GW of solar farms are being built and 11GW have planning consent. A gigawatt of rooftop capacity is also expected to be deployed this year.
This baseline has been shared with the Government and NESO via the Solar Taskforce, which was set up to acknowledge the need to speed up deployment at all scales. It is expected to deliver its Solar Roadmap early in the new year.[4]
Forecast
Assuming that the Government’s changes to the planning system speed up consenting times for infrastructure as intended, that half of the solar farms that seek approval are built and that Labour’s ‘rooftop revolution’ boosts growth by 20% year-on-year, we forecast that there will be 59.6GW in place by 2030. That represents 50% more growth than NESO’s scenarios.
Our modelling has much in common NESO’s Further Flex & Renewables scenario, assuming the same or similar capacity of utility batteries, behind-the-meter batteries and distributed flexibility, long-duration storage and unabated gas generation. The major differences are having 40GW of solar farms, 20GW of on rooftops and 31GW of distributed flexibilities and behind-the-meter energy storage.
The latter is considerably more than in NESO’s scenarios, which did not highlight distributed, small-scale batteries. According to installers and distributers, up to 80% of all residential solar installations now include a battery system, a trend that is expected to continue.
Andrew Birch from Open Solar, who is working with Durham University Energy Institute, said “Distributed energy directly lowers bills, reduces grid investment and is the bedrock of a smart energy grid. This groundbreaking work proves that NESO’s Clean Power 2030 roadmaps are derisked by accelerating distributed energy.”
Average carbon intensity of electricity from the grid last year has been estimated at 162 grams per kilowatt-hour by Carbon Brief.[5] In contrast, the institute concluded that our scenario would deliver an average carbon intensity of only 20g/kWh in 2030, about 25% lower than either of NESO’s scenarios.
Meanwhile, system costs would come to only 11.7p/kWh, compared to 12.6p and 13.3p in NESO’s scenarios.
But more solar capacity would still be delivered than NESO considered even under an extremely conservative projection. If we assume that no projects currently in planning will be built and only moderate annual growth of 10% on rooftops, we forecast at least 50.4GW will be deployed by 2030.
“We therefore ask the Government to reject NESO’s figures and use the most up-to-date deployment estimates, setting a target range for solar energy between 50 and 60GW in the forthcoming Clean Power Plan. Associated reforms to the way that connections to the grid are managed must not threaten viable, consented solar projects or the growing market for rooftop solar and on-site batteries,” Hewett concluded.
For further information, please see our briefing.
[1] Clean Power 2030: Advice on achieving clean power for Great Britain by 2030
[2] NESO’s clean power scenarios ‘underplay’ role of solar
[3] Sector backs Miliband’s ‘solar revolution’
[4] Solar taskforce meets in drive for clean power
[5] Analysis: UK electricity from fossil fuels drops to lowest level since 1957
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Editor’s notes:
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Gareth Simkins, Senior Communications Adviser
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